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Writer's pictureJude Temianka

The Critical Role of Trend Forecasting in Product and Service Development

In today's rapidly evolving market landscape, where technological advancements and consumer preferences shift with unprecedented speed, the art and science of trend forecasting have transformed from an optional luxury into a strategic imperative for businesses. The rapid advancement of technologies and the empowerment these innovations provide to consumers have drastically altered the dynamics of convenience and necessity. The ease of access and the proliferation of solutions have made it increasingly challenging to identify sustainable, unmet human needs and develop products that remain relevant beyond a short lifecycle.


Historically, trend research was often viewed as a novelty within many organisations, perhaps due to the difficulty of translating trend reports into actionable insights that seamlessly integrate into existing product roadmaps. This disconnect is exacerbated when companies, bold enough to house trend departments, fail to align these teams with product development efforts. Instead of breaking down trends into implementable feature enhancements that could enrich core offerings, these insights often remain abstract, failing to influence product strategy meaningfully.


The gap often lies in the practical application of trends to existing product roadmaps and in the failure to align trend departments closely with product development team activities. This misalignment leads to innovations that, although timely, may not resonate deeply with consumer needs or enhance product experience meaningfully.


Take, for example, the recent surge in e-commerce platforms incorporating shopping advisors. While these features aim to streamline product search and discovery, their effectiveness and reception by consumers have been mixed. The anticipation of a shopping companion like Zalando's was high, yet the reality fell short, primarily because these solutions didn't adequately cater to individual tastes or preferences. 


Zalando Fashion Advisor

This advisory trend has emerged as a response to the desire for more personalised and efficient online shopping experiences. However, generic AI advisors are being bolted onto platforms, despite the potential for more effective integration to support search and navigational features through leveraging psychometric theory to make suggestions based on consumers' browsing history or tendencies of certain psychometric profiles. By applying this approach, search results could be embellished, 'you might like' carousels could be approximated, account wish lists could be enhanced with items capable of creating new outfits based on previous purchases, and shoppers could be introduced to adjacent categories that may pique their interest. This is ultimately more likely to create better shopping experiences, increase customer satisfaction, and help retailers increase sales.


However, this nuanced application requires a thorough understanding of the diverse mindsets of shoppers, and dissecting the needs of different consumer profiles, to distinguish what would be valuable for those who know exactly what they want versus those seeking inspiration. This knee-jerk reaction to implementing stand-alone shopping advisors we’re seeing underscores a broader issue: brands frequently rush to implement trends without a deep understanding of the customer needs and nuances impacting their market!


The root of this trend-chasing phenomenon can often be traced back to a fear of missing out (FOMO) and the intense pressure to remain competitive. Yet, this reactionary approach overlooks the critical step of analysing human motivations behind emerging trends. Without this understanding, companies risk continually launching features that lack sustainable value and fail to resonate with target audiences in the longer term. The rapid rise and fall of grocery delivery services within Germany during the pandemic is a prime example of this.


Gorillas

Grocery delivery services like Gorillas and Flink illustrate what happens when trends aren't implemented in accordance with fundamental consumer behaviour. Despite their popularity during the pandemic, these services struggled to maintain momentum after life returned to normal. The ingrained habit of consumers' preference for selecting fresh produce themselves, the sporadic nature of convenience-driven service usage, and the financial considerations related to tipping and delivery fees (which are not hard-coded into the Germanic culture) demonstrate the complex web of consumer preferences that should have been navigated upfront.


Moreover, the failure to critically examine the role and potential impact of new features within the broader social contexts leads to missed opportunities. The essence of enjoying a product or service often lies in the balance between challenge and discovery, a concept that seems overlooked in the rush to implement convenience services.


This brings us to a critical realisation: companies must move beyond merely jumping on trend bandwagons. It is imperative to peel back the layers of emerging trends to understand the underlying human motivations that are driving innovation. However, this strategic approach to trend forecasting and implementation faces hurdles within organisational structures. Researchers and product developers often struggle for the acceptance and authority to conduct the strategic, long-term generative research necessary to inform impactful product decisions. The compartmentalisation of departments and a lack of coherent strategy between business development, marketing, and product development departments exacerbates this issue.


To overcome this, a shift in perspective is necessary. Companies need to see trend forecasting not as an indulgence but as a critical, ongoing process that requires integration into daily product and service development efforts. By focusing on the granular signals of change and understanding the drivers behind trends, businesses can anticipate evolutionary shifts, distinguishing between fundamental needs and transient hype. This entails extrapolating who and what is driving the demand for certain features and services within broad trends, what needs these services fulfil or pave the way for, and how technology can bridge the gap between current offerings and future expectations. 


Companies must then map these findings against their capabilities and strategic goals, identifying where they can innovatively apply technology to enhance core components of their existing offerings. This approach ensures that trends are not just followed but critically examined and integrated into foundational aspects of products and services which consumers have formed routine behaviours around. By doing so, companies can create more sustainable, impactful, and customer-centric products and services.

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